Cleantech Investor

First published in Cleantech magazine, November/December 2009. Copyright Cleantech Investor 2009

Scarce supplies of fresh water are further threatened by climate change

by Anne McIvor

Water is perhaps the biggest single challenge facing the world. Supplies of fresh water are declining due to a combination of factors, which include overuse and the growing population as well as climate change. Only around 0.77% of the water on the planet is suitable for drinking. Global warming will melt glaciers and reduce the volumes of water available for human use even further.

Orville Schell of the Asia Society provides a disconcerting insight into the connection between climate change and water. In a paper entitled “Glaciers, Water Security and Asia’s Rivers”, compiled for the World Economic Forum Water Initiative, Schell points out that, apart from the Arctic and the Antarctic, the largest ice mass on earth is situated “in the grand arc of mountains that stretches from the Afghanistan and Hindu Kush, through the Karakorum Range above Pakistan and India, toward the Himalaya Range that rims Nepal, Bangladesh and Burma, before lancing northward at Hengduan and Daxueshan ranges to form the eastern most tier of the vast Tibetan Plateau”.

This “high altitude frozen reservoir” is known as the “Third Pole”. In contrast to the Arctic or the Antarctic, however, the melt waters from the “Third Pole” are relied upon by some two billion people living around the river systems of Asia: the Amu Darya, Indus, Tarim, Ganges, Brahmaputra, Irawaddy, Salween, Mekong, Yangtze and Yellow rivers.

Schell describes the annual water cycle as “nature’s way of setting aside a reserve account of this precious resource and then rationing it out at critical times.” The “mass balance” of the glaciers (their ability to keep accumulating ice at a rate equal to, or greater than, their melt rate) has been maintained over the millennia, but is now threatened, argues Schell, as “anthropomorphic climate change has begun to intersect with the water cycle”.

Global warming has accelerated the melting of ice fields and the impact has been particularly acute in mountain ranges such as the Himalayas. The short term impact will be increased flows in Asia’s major river systems. Schell observes that “as populations increase and urbanisation continues with the growth of cities”, the impact is likely to be that “increased numbers of downstream users will become dependent (upon these flows)”. He cautions that:

“…in the long run, as global warming causes the capital account of this critical frozen resource to become depleted, releases will not only be deranged, but will diminish.”

Dominic Waughray of the World Economic Forum argues that adaptation to climate change is effectively a water issue. Waughray expresses concern that the global community has not yet been able to construct the architectures needed to deal with the water challenge. Waughray comments that:

“The impact of climate change will be felt through the medium of water and strong management of water resources is crucial.”

The ‘Stockholm Message’ to the COP-15 from the Stockholm International Water Institute’s World Water Week in September 2009 stated that a strong commitment on “climate change measures – both mitigation and adaptation” is “crucial in order to secure future water resource availability”. It emphasised that: “The importance of water must be properly and adequately reflected within the COP-15 agreement”.

The Stockholm Message called for additional funding to be allocated for the development of adaptive strategies for vulnerable groups and ecosystems:

“We urge the global water and climate communities to look beyond COP-15 and work through dialogue to strengthen global mechanisms that can enhance collective action on water and adaptation. These should include, but not be limited to, better sharing of knowledge and technology in support of adaptation measures in developing countries, active support for capacity building and access to improved levels of financing.”

The European Water Partnership is establishing a European Dialogue on Climate Change Adaptation and Water, in conjunction with its partners the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE), the Cooperative Programme on Water and Climate (CPWC), the Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management of the Netherlands. The partners have called for stronger and more focused co-operation on Climate Change Adaptation and Water in Europe.  A conference in Brussels in March this year identified bottlenecks, including the absence of an integrated approach, the lack of co-ordination and knowledge exchange between sectors (specifically the lack of and difficulty in communication between research and other sectors) and poor awareness of the challenges – in addition to scarcity of data and funding. A paper issued after the conference concluded that, while the challenges are transboundary, the management of the challenges is still largely national.

The impact of water scarcity upon economic growth is likely to be significant. The United Nation’s first World Water Conference was held in 1997 and marked the first attempt by the international community to increase access to safe drinking water. However, the rate of improvement in access to safe drinking water has slowed significantly. In 2008, over one billion people lacked access to safe drinking water and most sources anticipate that this number is likely to increase. According to research by HaloSource, an anti-microbial technology company, access to safe drinking water is actually likely to start to decline by next year.

The HaloSource research demonstrates a strong correlation between access to safe drinking water and economic growth. Using a range of international data sources and based upon the statistical techniques of Professor Geoffrey Wood from the Cass Business School, the HaloSource research shows that per capita economic growth can be expected to fall when less than 70% of the world population has access to safe water – with emerging economies likely to be affected as early as 2015. It highlights the threat to economic growth in ‘BRIC’ economies such as Brazil, Russia, India and China – with wider implications for the global economy.

Reduced supplies of fresh water are set to result in chronic water shortages. By 2025, according to the HaloSource research, 1.8 billion people are expected to be living in countries or regions with absolute water scarcity and two thirds of the world’s population could be under stress conditions. We can expect widespread water rationing. In fact, water rationing is already happening: in Caracas, Venezuela, water has been cut off to residents for up to 48 hours per week since the start of November.

The geopolitical implications of water scarcity are enormous. Schell points out, referring to the Asian river system:

“Since many of these river courses are trans-national and are now relied on by hundreds of millions of users, and since there is as of yet no adequate body of international law governing riparian claims on such river systems, it is not unlikely that major struggles could erupt over decreasing flow volumes.

“So, for much of Asia, the water cycle and the carbon cycle intersect at the nexus of glaciers and rivers and their interaction presents the world with a complex and potent cocktail of environmental, resource and national security problems for which we do not yet have, nor are we likely soon to have, any remedy.”

A sobering thought. And the impact is not restricted to Asia or the Himalayas. The melting of Alpine glaciers will impact upon Europe and in Latin America the melting of the Andes will mean that cities such as Lima, which depends upon glacial flow, will face severe water shortages.

We can expect water wars. Water has already been the cause of political tension – and even violent conflict. Water is one of the underlying issues causing the territorial dispute between India and Pakistan over the Kashmir region – the source of many of the rivers of the Indus River basin. In East Africa, Ethiopia’s threat of the construction of dams on the Nile led to tension with Egypt. And in Southern Africa, the water from the River Cuito is the cause of tension between Botswana, Angola and Namibia.

The nation of Singapore is acutely aware of the importance of water: Singapore buys water from neighbouring Malaysia. At the first Singapore International Water Week in 2008, Singapore Prime Minister Mr Lee Hsien Loong highlighted the extent to which water is a security concern and a potential trigger for conflict, citing the example of Darfur. Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong also emphasised the importance of good governance, commenting that:

“Ensuring a clean and reliable supply of potable water requires cities to take an integrated approach, from the reservoirs, catchment areas and water treatment plants to the reticulation, sanitation and sewerage system”.

Waughray argues that there is a gap in the water agenda in the space of public/private sector activity. The World Economic Forum’s Water Initiative, established in 2003 in conjunction with Alcan and the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation, focuses on creating innovative public-private partnerships for water. The initiative focuses on India and South Africa. The Indian Business Alliance on Water (IBAW) was formed in 2005 and was followed by a parallel process in South Africa.

The Copenhagen COP-15 discussions will inevitably place a heavy emphasis on energy. While a global agreement on carbon reduction is crucial, the lack of ‘joined up thinking’ between the water and energy agendas is set to remain a concern post Copenhagen. Positioning the water agenda alongside the energy agenda throws up a number of difficult issues. These issues include the implications for water purification projects which use energy: for example, high energy costs associated with desalination technology. They also extend to the implications for energy projects which require water. These might include solar thermal electricity generation plants. While projects such as the Desertec Industrial Initiative (a proposal for concentrating solar power systems located in the Sahara Desert which would supply electricity to Europe through high voltage DC cables) may meet the criteria for cost effective supply of renewable energy, the implications of large scale solar thermal energy generation in an arid region such as the Sahara may include unintended consequences on water resources. Clearly, there is a need to ensure that water is always high on the agenda: that companies, governments and other organisations consider their water footprint alongside their carbon footprint.