First published in Cleantech Infocus: Electric Vehicles, December 2009
Dear Reader,
Electric vehicles have certainly been a long time coming. Electric cars were available over a century ago. In 1908, Henry Ford presented an electric car to his wife, and they enjoyed a period of popularity with high society ladies. Indeed, an association between electric cars and women drivers is argued to be one of the factors which worked against electric cars. Others included the introduction of Charles Kettering’s starter motor, which significantly improved the appeal of the internal combustion engine by eliminating the hand crank. With mass market production of the Model T Ford and the availability of cheap oil, electric vehicles went into decline.
There have been aborted attempts at reviving the electric car, but it is only now, a century on, that the industry is set to enter the mainstream. The momentum behind the recent interest includes both concerns about energy security and global warming – in no particular order. Battery technology has moved on in recent years, with developments in lithium battery technology driven by the electronics industry. Further investment is now being undertaken in battery technology and there are developments in electric drivetrains and technology for range extended vehicles
The electric vehicle industry is set to be significant in terms of scale. In the short term, China alone is reported to be targeting annual production capacity of electric (and hybrid) cars and buses of 500,000 by 2011. Japan and South Korea are expected to be manufacturing over 1.1 million hybrid or all-electric vehicles by 2011, according to CSM Worldwide. And North American production by 2011 is forecast to be over 250,000.
Longer term projections for the industry vary. We have come across forecasts which anticipate sales for the total EV industry of US$227 billion by 2015 – and that the electric vehicle charging market alone will generate annual sales of US$1.9 billion by then.
Whatever the pace of growth, the electric vehicle industry, including the manufacture of vehicles and components such as batteries and the charging infrastructure, is poised to account for a growing percentage of road transport. The electric vehicle industry may have been slow to emerge, but it is now becoming firmly established as an important part of the overall automotive industry.
Anne McIvor
December 2009
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