Cleantech Investor

First published in Cleantech Infocus: Battery Technology, July 2009. Copyright Cleantech Investor 2009

Frost & Sullivan expect lithium-ion battery capacity to rise from 18kWH in 2007 to around 35kWH somewhere between 2010 and 2010 and potentially to as much as 75kWH by 2020. They expect energy density to rise from 90WH/kg in 2007 to 100 WH/kg in the 2010-2015 period and potentially as much as 1600 WH/kg by 2020. Thus, the range which can be achieved by an electric car fuelled by a lithium-ion battery is projected by Frost & Sullivan to rise from between 120-150 km in 2007 to between 200 km and 250 km during the 2010 to 2015 timeframe – and could potentially reach 300+ kilometres by 2020. With increased production of lithium-ion packs, prices are projected by Frost & Sullivan to fall from over US$10,000 at present to levels which are closer to nickel-based batteries.

Separately, we have seen forecasts which project that the market for large-scale lithium batteries will exceed €10 billion over the next decade.

According to Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile SA, the largest supplier of lithium in the world with a 30% market share, global demand for lithium grew at a compound annual growth rate of 6.7% over the period between 1997 and 2008. It projects that lithium demand will increase significantly over coming years with around ten car manufacturers set to introduce HEVs and EVs using lithium batteries between 2009 and 2012. According to BASF, demand for Li-Ion batteries is growing by about 12% annually.

While Chile is currently the world’s largest lithium producer (producing around 40,000 tonnes per year), somewhere between 40% and 50% of the global reserves of lithium are estimated to be located in Bolivia. Consortiums from China, Japan (including Sumitomo and Mitsubishi) and France (Bollore SA and Eramet) have all made proposals to the Bolivian Government with a view to gaining mining concessions at the Salar de Uyuni salt flat – which according to a US Geological Survey, contains 5.4 million of the world’s 11 million metric tons of lithium reserves. The Bolivian Government is insisting upon offers which include a commitment to manufacture batteries in Bolivia. The Bolivian Government is investing $5.7 million to build an experimental raw lithium carbonate processing plant – with a full scale industrial plant operational by the end of 2012. China, which is currently the third largest producer in the world, controls somewhere between 8% and 10% of the estimated global reserves.